They Keep Stealing My Thunder ...

Apparently, things sound a lot more impressive when Steve Jobs or Eric Schmidt say things than when I do. For good reason I guess ... . Either way, I'm riding a prediction hot streak stretching back a  few years - hopefully they'll start paying off in a big way soon. For posterity's sake I'd like to make a few on virtual paper so that I can someday show my kids that ,in fact, I am right about somethings!

So, here goes - my predictions sure to go wrong:

PREDICTION: HP's acquisition of WebOS will be a winner. The importance of good UI is starting to be understood by the world (thanks Steve). WebOS is by far the best of the rest when it comes to UI on mobile devices and HP has the power to make something of it. Microsoft needs to prove that they've got a phone/tablet OS with legs, Android needs to get a better UI (they're working on it) ... so if HP puts the whole package in the market this year they'll have a seat at the table. They also are showing signs of getting their sexy back and polishing their PR image. That creaking you hear is the turning of the QE2, Google and Apple beware - it's headed your way!

PREDICTION: Google's acquisition of On2 won't work out. Their attempt to create an open video standard on top of On2's VP8 is going to turn into a morass. They chose an inferior codec to H.264 and one that is also open to all kinds of patent claims from 3rd parties. They must have known that both problems are there  - or they do their due diligence a lot worse than I believe they do. It must be that they don't believe there is another viable codec that could work as well as H.264 or that there is no video codec free of patent issues. They're wrong on both counts (more on that in a different posting). More importantly, even if they are right, they've underestimated people's appetites for legal risk. Under patent law if you (e.g. Comcast) sell a product (e.g. video) that infringes someone's patents (e.g. Phillips) you can't be shielded by a 3rd party (Google) for infringing. Sure Google can stand next to you at trial and even pay the damages, but you are still a defendant at the trial - and that really sucks.